Bitcoin ETF buying had recovered ahead of the U.S. Consumer Price Index release, but Nansen’s wallet data offered a less decisive picture. Senior research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard distinguished renewed demand for the funds from activity in the firm’s on-chain trading sample, where he had not identified clear evidence of broad Bitcoin accumulation.
At the same time, analysts saw a derivatives market that still carried considerable exposure. Crypto open interest stood at $140.9 billion after an $811 million liquidation episode, falling only about 2% in the pre-CPI assessment. The warning concerned Bitcoin’s vulnerability to a further inflation-driven adjustment, rather than a selloff already caused by the forthcoming data.
Demand signals and the policy backdrop
Sondergaard put Bitcoin ETF inflows on October 13 at $175.7 million. That positive session followed $678.9 million in withdrawals during October 5–9 and a further $65.4 million outflow on October 12. The sequence showed a return of fund buying after successive periods of redemptions, without establishing that demand had recovered across every part of the market.
An October 8 account of U.S.-listed funds illustrated the earlier withdrawals. Citing Farside Investors, it reported $484.9 million leaving Bitcoin ETFs on October 7. The fund figures included $105.1 million from Fidelity’s FBTC, $101.7 million from ARK 21Shares’ ARKB and $207.7 million from BlackRock’s IBIT.
The latest Smart Trader sample told a different story over different time horizons. Nansen recorded about $555,000 flowing into Solana and $22,000 into Ethereum over 24 hours. Both assets nevertheless remained in net outflow over seven days. Positive activity in the shorter window therefore coexisted with withdrawals across the longer sample period.
For Bitcoin-linked wallets, Sondergaard described flows moving in both directions without a clear accumulation trend. He interpreted the pre-CPI activity as narrowly focused positioning, rather than evidence of widespread confidence. The ETF figures and wallet observations covered different forms of activity, which limited the conclusions that could be drawn from the return of fund inflows alone.
Bitget Research’s derivatives briefing, meanwhile, cited CoinGlass for $811 million in liquidations during the 24 hours ending Tuesday morning. Long positions bore most of those losses. The following 24-hour liquidation reading was lower, at $140 million, while outstanding open interest stayed at $140.9 billion. The smaller liquidation total did not amount to an equivalent clearing of outstanding exposure.
Ryan Lee, Bitget Research’s chief analyst, saw qualifications on both sides of that positioning picture. Forced selling could have removed Bitcoin positions especially vulnerable to a decline, reducing some potential follow-on pressure. Yet he did not regard the episode as proof that the remaining leverage had been fully unwound before the inflation release.
Lee’s downside scenario connected that remaining exposure with a possible inflation surprise. The briefing placed the 10-year Treasury yield around 5.20%. A hotter reading could prompt traders to reconsider yields and Federal Reserve policy, creating conditions for further liquidations. His analysis depended on both the data surprise and the leverage still present, rather than predicting an unavoidable outcome.
A softer inflation result supported the opposite possibility in Lee’s assessment. Rebuilding risk exposure and pressure on short positions could help produce a sharp recovery. His outlook consequently allowed forced closures to amplify an upward move as well as another decline, with the direction depending on the release and the response of positioned traders.
Earlier commentary had also presented alternatives around CPI. In October 12 coverage, BTSE Chief Operating Officer Jeff Mei associated unexpectedly strong inflation with a possible Bitcoin move below $80,000. A softer result could instead allow a recovery toward $86,000 or above. These were Mei’s conditional scenarios from that earlier assessment, separate from the levels later supplied by Zhang.
Lacie Zhang, research lead at Bitget Wallet, emphasized the possibility that core inflation would remain stubborn. She identified energy spillovers, tariffs and persistent demand as potential sources of pressure. Her pre-release estimate put the chance of an October Fed hold near 77%, while stronger core inflation or renewed yield pressure could require a larger reassessment of policy expectations.
Zhang’s headline CPI forecast ranged from roughly 0.5% to 0.6% monthly and 3.6% to 3.7% annually. Her core estimates were around 0.2% monthly and 2.4% to 2.5% annually. Sondergaard separately cited annual consensus forecasts of 3.6% for headline inflation and 2.5% for core CPI.
For evidence on consumer demand, Zhang pointed to retail sales excluding autos and gasoline: growth of 0.28% month-on-month and 4.05% year-on-year. She also referred to New York Fed President John Williams indicating that further increases might be unnecessary in 2027.
Zhang said investors still generally expected another rate increase before the end of the year. Persistent inflation, however, could extend a higher-for-longer policy path beyond that expectation. Her concern was that a firmer inflation result would challenge the prevailing policy outlook, including assumptions about how long restrictive rates would remain necessary.
Bitfinex analysts had previously tied the inflation figures to December’s policy outlook for Bitcoin ETF investors. Their October 6 discussion of slowing fund buying argued that softer core inflation would make another increase harder to justify. Strong spending alongside persistent core inflation pointed in the other direction, strengthening the case for an additional increase.
Price levels in Zhang’s conditional outlook
Zhang’s price framework began with Bitcoin around $83,400–$83,500. She placed initial support at $81,000–$82,000 and another downside reference near the recent $80,400 low. Resistance lay at $84,000–$84,500, followed by $85,000–$87,000.
Her stronger recovery scenario required Bitcoin to hold above $84,500–$85,000 with solid trading volume and renewed inflows. She also wanted monthly core inflation at or below about 0.2% and easing expectations for further rate increases. December Fed expectations, ETF flows and continued institutional accumulation were additional factors in that outlook, rather than confirmation that the bullish conditions had already been met.