Bitcoin is tracking toward a second consecutive October decline as weakening U.S. spot demand counteracts renewed purchases via exchange-traded funds ahead of the Federal Reserve's October 28 decision, thereby challenging its "Uptober" reputation. The cryptocurrency has declined 3.8% in October 2025 and is now heading toward a second consecutive losing month.
Through October 25, BTC had lost 4.2%, contrasting with an average October gain of 18.1% recorded during the period from 2020 to 2025. Data from CryptoQuant shows a persistently negative Coinbase premium, which indicates weak relative demand on the U.S. exchange. On October 27, Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $176 million in inflows, with BlackRock's IBIT fund leading the way by bringing in $151.5 million.
Seasonal Reputation Challenged by Data
In the lead-up to the Federal Reserve decision and the November elections, CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index declined from a level of 90 down to 60. Market data provided by the report indicates that Bitcoin's price fell from approximately $83,600 at the close of September to $79,200; BTC later recovered toward $81,500 on Wednesday, mitigating some of that prior loss, though the final monthly outcome remains undetermined with three calendar days remaining.
The cryptocurrency concluded October lower in 2025, recording a decline of roughly 3.8%; should another negative finish occur, 2026 would become the second consecutive losing October, following five years of gains that contributed to the seasonal nickname.
Historical data from CryptoQuant's report indicates that Bitcoin advanced 27.6% in October 2020, 40% in 2021, 5.5% in 2022, 28.5% in 2023 and 10.9% in 2024, with the five positive years averaging 22.5% despite considerable variation in individual returns. Including the 2025 decline reduces the 2020–2025 October average to approximately 18.1%, a six-year figure that serves as a historical description rather than a forecast since the latest October has not yet closed.
The month began with Bitcoin near $83,567 after a strong third-quarter recovery, though Bitfinex analysts had previously warned that such strength depended on new spot purchases instead of short covering or futures positioning. ETF subscriptions had already slowed considerably following September's buying spree, and the cryptocurrency concluded October lower in 2025 with a decline of roughly 3.8%.
CryptoQuant's data indicates a sustained lack of purchasing pressure from U.S. markets throughout October, with the Coinbase Premium Index staying below zero for the entire month. This metric, which contrasts Bitcoin prices on Coinbase against offshore exchanges, dropped to minus 0.146 on October 24, marking its lowest level since late June. Although a negative premium suggests that buyers on Coinbase paid less than participants in other markets, this figure does not account for every American purchaser nor does it confirm that all U.S. investors were selling.
CryptoQuant's data indicates that apparent spot demand was negative daily starting October 14. By October 25, the thirty-day metric recorded a deficit of approximately 76,000 BTC, meaning purchases could not soak up the circulating supply within their framework. Julio Moreno, who leads research at the firm, observed that the Bull Score Index dropped from 90 to 60 over this span. Despite this drop, six out of ten indicators in the model stayed bullish. This combination implies worsening market conditions without a full turnaround, since the index fall mirrors changes in specific metrics instead of signaling a total collapse of bullish sentiment.
Research head Julio Moreno stated that the Bull Score Index fell from 90 to 60, indicating less bullish overall conditions while six of ten indicators in the model remained bullish. This specific index drop reflects changes in particular metrics rather than a total collapse of sentiment, even though spot demand continued to contract and US investors stayed mostly on the sidelines as traders took profits.
According to SoSoValue records, U.S. spot Bitcoin funds drew $176 million on October 27, a figure where BlackRock's IBIT held $151.5 million and Fidelity's FBTC added $24.5 million. This accumulation happened even as broader market sentiment turned less optimistic despite the specific inflows into these funds.
After approximately $773.5 million in total withdrawals were logged on October 22 and 23, subsequent buying took place against a backdrop where the gap between positive ETF subscriptions and negative estimated spot demand has been observed previously. Past reviews of fund flows indicated that massive purchases in late September failed to instantly flip CryptoQuant's 30-day apparent demand metric into positive territory.
A recovery for Bitcoin is unfolding before the Federal Reserve convenes on Wednesday to discuss potential interest-rate hikes in December. This October 27–28 gathering comes prior to Thursday's scheduled publication of U.S. GDP figures and personal consumption expenditures inflation data.
ETF Inflows Offset Exchange Weakness
Entering the month, an October market outlook pinpointed $82,000 as a critical threshold for Bitcoin, while analysts anticipated that institutional capital movements and inflation figures would dictate whether purchasers could maintain any rebound without depending on past performance. CryptoQuant's current risk indicators are positioned lower; Moreno marked the 365-day moving average near $77,585, noted the trader realized price at approximately $74,041, and set the 200-day moving average near $73,028 as benchmarks should Bitcoin decline.
According to the firm's report, the gap between market price and the realized cost for holders with one- to three-month positions shrank from 33.4% on September 22 down to 8.1% by October 26, thereby reducing the unrealized profit buffer available if values drop. Market commentator Crypto Warrior remarked that a lackluster October does not define Bitcoin's trajectory for November, especially since the upcoming U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for November 3 after the final trading sessions of that month.