U.S. Bitcoin and Ether exchange-traded funds experienced a combined net outflow of $530.1 million on Nov. 5, with Bitcoin-specific products accounting for $430.2 million in losses and Ether funds shedding an additional $99.9 million. AMINA Bank's derivatives chief noted that renewed fund buying is essential for sustaining crypto gains into 2027.
Andreja Cobeljic of AMINA identifies demand for Ether ETFs as a primary indicator for continued cryptocurrency appreciation, while low futures premiums indicate that arbitrage currently dominates market positioning. The bank's derivatives chief further assesses that growing demand for downside protection could support a recovery at a later stage.
Institutional Flows Reverse After Brief Rally
Andreja Cobeljic, who leads derivatives trading at AMINA Bank, stated to the report that the most evident indicators of institutional adoption are ETF flows and corporate Bitcoin purchases, whereas futures activity may stem from trades unrelated to price increases.
In his remarks, he outlined factors that could fuel another rally, noting that recent fund data reveals investors pulling money out following a short-lived resurgence in buying activity. Data from Farside Investors' Bitcoin tracker indicates that U.S. spot funds experienced an outflow of $430.2 million on Nov. 5, which marked a reversal of the $74.6 million inflow recorded the prior day; within this shift, Fidelity's FBTC accounted for $199.9 million in withdrawals, while BlackRock's IBIT saw losses totaling $105 million.
Data from Farside Investors' Bitcoin tracker indicates that U.S. spot funds experienced net withdrawals of approximately $1.51 billion across five trading sessions spanning Oct. 30 through Nov. 5, a figure calculated from daily totals provided by the firm. This broad outflow masked uneven recovery patterns within the category, where Fidelity attracted $236.7 million in inflows on Nov. 4 despite BlackRock recording $201.2 million in withdrawals during the same period.
Ether funds reflected this mixed activity, with Farside's Ethereum table documenting specific daily movements. On November 5, $99.9 million exited Ether funds following an inflow of $53 million on November 4; BlackRock's ETHA fund represented $75.2 million of those recent outflows, while another $22 million left ETHB. Regarding what signals might persuade him that institutional demand would persist through 2027, Cobeljic identified Ether flows as a primary indicator.
Cobeljic anticipates that continued outperformance in the cryptocurrency sector will rely on capital shifting away from holdings like gold and artificial intelligence stocks, noting that ETF subscriptions provide the clearest signal of this rotation since institutional allocators favor funds over direct cryptocurrency ownership.
“However, the market has now reached a size where it needs institutional-scale capital flows to achieve meaningful growth; retail investors alone cannot shift the trajectory.” Ethereum market conditions have recently been less favorable. During the selloff on Nov. 6, Ether traded near $2,220, representing an approximate 8.3% decline over 24 hours, while Bitcoin dropped roughly 6.1% to a price of $75,500.
According to CryptoQuant data cited in recent coverage, Ethereum's tracked derivatives open interest declined to approximately $11.4 billion from nearly $16 billion recorded in late September. Cobeljic noted that futures positioning requires a distinct interpretation compared to ETF subscriptions or treasury purchases, observing that the basis—the gap between futures and spot prices—has remained very low even during market rallies. He explained that when futures positioning is genuinely bullish and directional, the basis typically expands, yet recent activity suggests otherwise.
Cobeljic characterized this subdued premium as evidence that much of the current market activity involves basis trades and arbitrage rather than outright bets on higher prices. He described the futures exposure as shorter term and vulnerable to frequent stops, indicating that a substantial part of the market pursues returns from pricing differences without taking a directional view.
On November 5, a market review showed that long positions were liquidated for $954.38 million while short positions totaled $127.30 million, resulting in combined forced closures of $1.08 billion.
Futures Arbitrage Masks True Market Direction
Cobeljic observed that the skew for Bitcoin and Ether options had shifted toward puts, flipping the usual trend where calls are favored over instruments that shield against price drops. He views this growing interest in hedging as a potential base for recovery, arguing that securing the current investor group improves the asymmetry for an upward move once protection is in place.
Cobeljic noted that corporate acquisitions represent long-term treasury decisions characterized by a single directional intent and reduced sensitivity to price fluctuations, distinguishing them from other investment vehicles. He further explained that venture funding indicates a commitment to innovation with its own distinct risk profile, which Cobeljic stated does not exert the same influence on cryptocurrency valuations as ETF inflows or corporate purchases.